The Drone Ecosystem: Safety in the National Airspace as a Wicked Problem
A couple of weekends ago, I had the opportunity to spend the day with about 60 drone pilots, many who have popular YouTube channels at a conference called SpinUp. The day was spent with several short TED-like presentations on a variety of topics, interspersed with flying drones over the Dell Diamond Semi-Pro baseball diamond for aerial demonstrations. I gave a short 30 minute presentation to the group regarding recent efforts at harmonization of competencies and standards as the drone ecosystem continues to evolve. I posited that the evolving drone ecosystem is one that has many human, political, geographical and technological factors that are related on the earth and in the airspace, interdependent on each other. Given the short presentation constraints, in this article, I provide a more detailed explanation of why I think the safety in the national airspace is a “wicked” problem as the drone ecosystem continues to evolve at breakneck speed.
Let’s start with some definitions of two themes that weave their way through the presentation.
What is an Ecosystem?
The term “ecosystem” is most often used to talk about the natural world. In nature, ecosystems are communities of living and non-living organisms that are interdependent governed by general rules. Components of most ecosystems in the natural world include water, air, sunlight, soil, plants, microorganisms, insects and animals. Humans often of the “circle of life” or web of life as an ecosystem, meaning that one part of the ecosystem affects other parts and that a balanced ecosystem is a healthy ecosystem. Ecosystem concepts also are apparent in any system where there are interconnected and interdependent parts, in human systems or organizations.
I posit that the “drone ecosystem” is one that is evolving at breakneck speed and is constantly changing based on how the systems react to change or disruption.
What is a Wicked Problem?
In 1973, Horst W.J. Rittel and Melvin M. Webber, two Berkeley professors, published an article in Policy Sciences introducing the notion of “wicked” social problems. The article, “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning,” named 10 properties that distinguished wicked problems from hard but ordinary problems. Ordinary problems are those problems that have a clear cause and effect connection and a clear solution once a remedy is applied.
In short, a wicked problem is one that is difficult or impossible to solve because of the number of people involved, incomplete or contradictory information and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. In this context, “wicked” doesn’t mean evil, it means the problem is resistant to resolution, socially complex with a no stopping rule and laden with complex interdependencies that when one addresses on part of the problem it often creates others.
The Bottom Line Up Front
In general terms, safety in the national airspace related to drones is socially complex because it involves numerous federal, state, and local agencies, drone technology companies, advocacy and corporate groups, standards and rule-making entities, and numerous airspace users with limited or no knowledge of safe operations.
Numbers of Pilots
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expects the emergent drone ecosystem to grow in hobbyist or leisure pilots to 3.2 million by 2022, outnumbering certified Part 107 drone pilots by 9 to 1. However, this number is a prediction based on “registered” users who register their drones with the FAA. The prediction does not account for hobbyist users who don’t bother to register their drone or build one in their garage. The actual number then is very hard to predict. Chris Anderson, CEO of 3D Robotics was noted to say about drones, “I like to use smartphones as an analogy for where we are with drone technology today. We are currently at the iPhone stage, where we have launched the phone, but we don’t yet have the app store ecosystem.”
In the drone context, safety in the national airspace is a wicked problem for a number of factors. First, there are numerous stakeholders engaging in various aspects of an evolving ecosystem which makes it socially complex. Additionally, many decision-makers and users of the airspace such as individual pilots, commercial users, hobbyists and public safety have conflicting values and interests in the airspace. Moreover, there are very little resources for enforcement of the basic rules for operating a drone in the airspace and political interests are fast-changing. Finally, perceptions of “safety” in the national airspace is a socially-constructed dynamic. Safety has different meanings by the various stakeholders operating in the drone ecosystem and safety perceptions are colored by different beliefs and backgrounds.
Let’s dig a bit deeper.
The Emergent Drone Ecosystem: Outside Forces
The emergent drone ecosystem has evolved over the past five years at exponential speed. The National Airspace is an ecosystem that is continuing to evolve with various entities playing a bigger part in its use.
I identify 4 large areas in the drone ecosystem that will play an important role in harmonizing competency among drone pilots (both hobbyist and commercial) and developing a common set of standards that I think will affect us all going forward.
• Advocacy groups/Community Based Organizations
• Standards/Measurement entities
• Political and Regulatory entities
• Security entities
Advocacy & Community Based Organizations: The Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International is the world’s largest non-profit advocacy group promoting the advancement of unmanned systems and robotics community.
The Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International or AUVSI is a non-profit entity represents over 190 corporations and individuals from 60 countries advancing unmanned systems and the robotics community. They are first out to develop a “leveling of competency” critieria called their (TOP) Trusted Operator Program.
AUVSI developed the TOP after collaboration through the TOP Steering Committee, a group of more than 197 subject-matter experts and industry leaders from more than 50 organizations across the globe. Their input helped develop three levels of TOP certification, each tailored to reflect different levels of safety resilience, skills, qualifications and knowledge:
- Level one covers low-risk operations under the FAA’s small UAS rule (Part 107), such as flights during the day, below 400 feet and away from people.
- Level two is for operators who require a Part 107 waiver, a visual observer or sensor operator, or those that fall outside the Part 107 regulation.
- Level three provides standards for operating in “safety critical” areas, such as near chemical, oil, gas or nuclear facilities, extended line of sight, pipeline, powerline and cell tower inspections.
Standards and Measurement Organizations: The National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) is a federal agency with a long history. It was established in 1901 and is the nation’s oldest physical science laboratory. It was established to remove a major challenge to the United States industrial corporations for much needed correct measurement standards. They measure almost everything from nano-technology to global communications networks.
However, this week, the first standards and measurement group out of the box to attempt to create consistent drone standards is the International Organization for Standardization or ISO. ISO is an independent, non-governmental international organization with a membership of 162 national standards bodies.
Why Do We Need Measurement Anyway?
H.R. 302 House Resolution 302: FAA Reauthorization Act, 2018
On October 5, 2018, the President signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 (PDF). The FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 (H.R. 302, Pub.L. 115–254) is a United States federal law, enacted during the 115th United States Congress, which reauthorizes the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) and other programs till the end of fiscal year 2023. The 1,200 page bill does many things including dedicating 100 pages of the bill to unmanned systems.
You can sum up the 100 pages of the HR 302 related to drones as a firm commitment to safety and to continue the work of integrating UAS in to the national airspace system.
We don’t’ really know how this is going to look in real-life yet, but here’s what’s in the bill. ( A PDF summary)
•Repeal 336: Hobbyist rule. TEST of basic Aeronautical Knowledge for Hobbyists and Part 107 pilots.
•Creation of Risk Based Standards: Burden of Risk Safety pushed to Manufactures and Operators. The big players are in the drivers seat, (general aviation, public agencies and UAS industry, no nod to any other stakeholders, yet.
•FAA directs manufacturers on what kinds of safety features need to be built into their drones.
•Counter Drone (CD) and Mitigation technology
•More development of B4UFly app
•Pilot Study: Remote ID Drones
•Waiver Process Improvements
•Written Privacy Policy
•Community Based Organizations Standards like those in AUVSI to establish standards, AUVSI, leveling standards.
- Increased emphasis on competency and standards.
- Enforcement: Administrator can pursue civil remedies, including referrals to other agencies such as State and local agencies to enforce safe operations.
The Homeland Security Connection
Each year the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) lays out its annual threat assessment. This year, the top five threats listed are: critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, terrorism, border security, and drones. Secretary Neilson lists drones as a threat for their potential by nefarious actors to use of drones to surveil law enforcement and smuggle contraband.
Connecting The Dots
Putting on my prognosticators hat, listed below are some of the things I think drone pilots can expect to see in the next five years. Just this week though, there are efforts underway to put in place leadership for harmonization and standardization of the drone ecosystem with two new leadership positions at the FAA. The two executive-level moves include the appointment of a new Director for Aircraft Certification and a new Director of UAS Integration.
Predictions
-Part 107 pilots will need to keep excellent records related to flight time and upkeep of all aspects of their program, hardware, software, environment.
- Expect to “Level Up” as new programs come out to differentiate yourself in competency from other pilots.
- Expect that your flights will have more scrutiny via unique identifier program or enforcement
- Expect to see more efforts at Counter-Drone Technologies and mitigation activities.
- AUVSI a non-profit of Community Based Organizations (CBO’s), will play an important role in facilitating various groups. Sign up.
- NIST, ISO and other standards organizations will also play an important role in measurement and standards development.
- May see Part 107 proficiency testing in addition to electronic testing in the future.
- Expect to see more federal, state and local efforts at regulations, enforcement and rule making.
- Expect to see nefarious actors use the national airspace to shut down public services and cause extreme disruption for large numbers of people.
If the next five years is anything like the last five years in the drone ecosystem, expect exponential changes in all aspects of the ecosystem with extraordinary discoveries for using drones for good and nefarious uses.
